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Critique of Intelligent Design

Evolution vs. Creationism

The Art of ID Stuntmen

Faith vs Reason

Anthropic Principle

Autopsy of the Bible code

Science and Religion

Historical Notes


Serious Notions with a Smile


Letter Serial Correlation

Mark Perakh's Web Site


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Title Author Date
Three doors and thousands of boxes Garcia , Alberto Feb 03, 2009
Dear Mr.Perakh,

I have been reading your articles for a while, not neccesarilly in chronological order, and i have just found an excuse to send an e-mail to
you, showing my most sincere appreciation. Thanks a lot for all of them.

The three door problem (AND, the compere knowing where the prize is) became a classic discussion between my wife and me some years ago.

Not in a formal way, i´ve found that people starts grasping the idea, when you tell them to consider that:

-ALWAYS changing your choice, what you are really doing, is DISCARDING the door of your choice. It´s like being able to choose all of the others.
-As someone else said, considering a lot more doors, makes the argument clearer. żDoes it?. Just for fun:

I don´t know if you remember the last frames of the movie "Riders of the lost ark", where you can see a guy, "hiding" the wooden box which
contains the ark in between thousands of other wooden boxes.

I asked my wife, let´s imagine you are in front of this sea of wooden boxes and you have to guess where the ark is. Go ahead and make your
choice. Now the guy, who knows where the ark is, opens up all the boxes but one. żDo you think you were so lucky to have chosen the right one? Remember when you did it!

I know it doesn´t throw much light but, i liked to read about this after so long.

Best regards,

Related Articles: Improbable Probabilities

Title Author Date
Three doors and thousands of boxes Perakh, Mark Feb 03, 2009
Dear Alberto:

Gracias. I appreciate your kind words about my posts. (BTW, I have not seen the movie that you've mentioned, but it looks to me that your example may be helpful to clarify the matter for those people who have difficulty to comprehend then three doors problem).

Best wishes,

Related Articles: Improbable Probabilities

Title Author Date
Three doors and thousands of boxes Myers, John Mar 02, 2009
Ah yes - the three door question from the old game show Let's Make a Deal'. I read that in Dr. Perakh book 'Unintelligent Design'. I have posed the question to a number of people I know - would you trade doors after Monty Hall reveals what is behind one of the two unchoosen doors? Does it make any difference?

I have been quite amused at how often people will say that it wouldn't make any difference if they trade doors - the odds are 50-50.

I then go on to suggest what if there were 100 doors, a million doors! Monty Hall knows which door the BIG prize is behind. He has you choose one door, then reveals what is behind every other door but one (besides the one
you originally chose) - leaving two unopened doors. Would you trade now? Usually, then they will realize what the probability is.

A simple illustration of probability, but tricky when it involves only three doors!

Related Articles: Improbable Probabilities